Always Check Assumptions

Full Ministry of Justice statistics on the cohort arrested in connection with Augusts's English riots offer considerable support to the analysis coming from the liberal left at the time, namely that rioters were, in the main, directionless, alienated and deprived youth.

"The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and Home Office background analysis shows that those arrested during the riots overwhelmingly came from deprived areas and had the poorest educational backgrounds." Guardian.

"More than one in 10 of the young people appearing before courts had been permanently excluded - [whereas] the figure drops to 0.1% among all those aged 15." BBC.

So far, so obvious.

But.

Now, I've not seen the report itself, but it seems that (at least) one major assumption is built into this, an assumption which must skew the figures quite radically; MoJ analysts apparently assume that the sample of those arrested is automatically representative of all those taking part. If anything, the converse seems more likely to me, and that those caught by the authorities are not a representative sample, but simply those less able and less practised in escape and evasion.

Not very scientific.

Update from John Robb: US gang membership is now estimated 40% higher than in 2009, and the combined factors of high unemployment with all these elective overseas oil wars and their inevitable product - returning, often traumatised and uncared for combat veterans who can see little or no future - is not a happy prospect, to judge from past history. 

So maybe it's a bit too soon to get complacent about gangs and organised crime.

No Rest for the Wicked

Having already had their holidays delayed by one emergency session, on Wednesday July 20th, for a statement by the Prime Minister on the News of the World Hackgate Scandal, followed by lengthy discussion, Westminster politicians faced further mutterings as both European and North American economies experienced ever worsening crisis.

This then culminated in an emergency recall of both Houses today to shake heads over 4 days of civil disorder in cities across England, and yes, a statement from the Chancellor on the economy.

As Lord Knight put it in Lords of the Blog: "The Government faces a big challenge. It has to manage two crises. One of economic growth and the other of social breakdown. As the Prime Minister said in his statement, [get this!] “crime has a context, and we must not shy away from it”..."

“We can argue about whether some of the measures in response to the economic crisis will exacerbate the social crisis, but most important is the Government putting an absolute priority on tackling the twin challenges"

"Parliamentary time is limited between now and next May when the current session finishes. This unprecedented set of economic and social problems are such that I don’t think Parliament has the luxury of being able to legislate and debate anything else of substance."

In the current state of affairs we can only take bets as to whether hard-done-by parliamentarians will be able to spend the rest of their holidays in relative tranquillity, or no.

As for Eurocrats, they aren't having it much easier either, because "the Socialists & Democrats party bloc in the European Parliament has called for MEPs to be recalled from the summer recess to tackle the eurozone crisis."

Hey ho.